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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/26 11:57

   Corn, Beans Higher at Midday

   Midday grain trade is mostly lower in quiet action.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 230 points higher. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 8 points higher. 
Energies are firmer, with crude 1.00 higher moving above $60 a barrel. 
Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold off 8.00. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the 
May-nearby $3.80 area that we have tested the last three sessions. The market 
is starting to move into pre-report squaring trade with the big annual March 
Planting Intentions report on Friday along with the March 1 stocks. The average 
trade guess is for the 2019 planting intentions to be at 91.184 million acres 
versus 89.129 last year; the range of expectations is 90-92.2 million. The 
March 1 corn stocks are expected to be at 8.336 billion bushels versus 8.892 
one year ago. The Midwest weather issues are hindering demand and movement with 
short term moisture issues to continue with a few wet spring outlooks for the 
corn belt. South America crop progress should remain uneventful for now. 
Ethanol margins have improved with production losses due to flooding, and the 
start of spring-driving season with ethanol futures edging slightly lower to 
start the week with tomorrow's weekly report expected to reflect production 
losses. Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local conditions. The 
slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near term with 
fertilizer logistics likely to be a major issue with water moving into the 
Mississippi. Trade will be watched for further China announcements are made 
with nothing the last two days. On the May chart support is the 20-day at $3.71 
1/2 with resistance at the 100-day at $3.83 3/8 then the 200-day at $3.85.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with range-bound action 
continuing within the same dime we've traded the last week with little fresh 
news. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The soybean 
2019 planting intentions are expected to be at 86.2 million acres down from 
89.196 a year ago. The March 1 stocks are expected to be a record 2.687 billion 
bushels versus 2.109 one year ago. South America weather should maintain the 
recent pattern in the coming days with Brazil harvest moving along and normal 
progress in Argentina with the peak of harvest approaching, and SA beans at a 
solid discount to US origin seasonally. Crush margins remain strong to support 
domestic usage, with basis mostly flat. On the May chart support is the $9.05 
10-day and 20-day which we are just below at midday with the $8.99 level as the 
next level of support, then the 50-day and 100-day at $9.17 the next round up 
if we can find late buying. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 1 cents lower to 4 cents higher with Chicago wheat trade 
leading again during the day session. Looking to Friday, the trade is looking 
for spring wheat acreage to be at 13.369 million acres versus 13.2 one year 
ago; the range of expectations is 12.6 to 13.9 million acres. The March 1 wheat 
stocks are expected to be at 1.543 billion bushels versus 1.495 billion one 
year ago. In the bigger picture the trade appears to still be focused on easing 
the oversold conditions with the large fund short in place. The outlook for 
spring wheat planting will remain challenging. Export news has been quieter 
lately with most of the focus on high protein wheat and trade focused on the 
Egyptian tender today. Warm plains weather will pull the crop out of dormancy 
with generally good conditions so far, and plenty of moisture and more on tap 
this week along with warmer weather before another cold snap. Wheat basis 
varies widely on product and location. On the May Kansas City chart support is 
the 10-day at $4.42 with the 20-day at $4.40 below that, with the upper 
Bollinger band the next round up at $4.56.

    David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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